At the present time elaboration of scenario conditions of the region’s long-term development is a compulsory element in the process of creating its development strategy. The Ministry of Economic Development actively regulates this process on the basis of recommended methodological materials, the content of which is contradictory. The article presents the results of investigation conducted by the group of authors based on the research work devoted to the issues under consideration. The main emphasis is laid on the existing methodological problems concerning elaboration of scenario conditions of the region’s long-term development and directions of their creation. The article proves inadequacy of the existing approach to elaboration of scenario conditions and offers the authorial methodological approach. Original formulations of the main methodological statements including definitions, the structure and the process of elaborating scenario conditions of the region’s long-term development conducted by authors are provided.
The fundamental proved statements of the work are the expansion of the list of factors, underlying scenario conditions of the region’s development, inclusion of factors concerning development of federal districts as the level of structure elaborating scenario conditions, extension of scenarios’ spectrum, reduction of the number of predictable indicators and addition of economic and mathematical methods of predicting the long-term development by expert procedures
Keywords
scenarios, scenario conditions, factors and conditions, economic and mathematical methods, examination