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Journal section "Territorial economy"

Economic Growth Factors

Lukin E.V.

2 (32), 2016

Lukin E.V. Economic Growth Factors. Territorial development issues, 2016, no. 2 (32). URL: http://vtr.isert-ran.ru/article/1819?_lang=en

Abstract   |   Authors   |   References
The article shows the necessity of new high-tech industrialization of the Russian economy and strengthening of the integration of mining and manufacturing sectors of the economy. It identifies key controllable factors and parameters of neo-industrial development of the economy. On the basis of mathematical calculations it proves that such development requires stability of the ruble over the long term (since industrialization), high efficiency of capital investments and a regulated share of savings. The work reveals values of these parameters for the economy of Russia and the Vologda Oblast for the period from 2005 to 2014, concludes that with the maintenance of the current situation the pace of economic growth will become negative. For comparison it presents similar figures for the same period for the developed economy of the United States. It is calculated that to solve the problem of doubling the country’s GDP by 2025 (i.e. for 10 years, with the average annual economic growth rate being equal to 7.5%), it is necessary to ensure the preservation of purchasing power of the ruble, the effectiveness of investments at the level not less than 25% and the share of savings – not less than 30% of GDP. The article substantiates that this will be only possible within the economic system that includes methods of planned impact on these key factors of economic growth. On the basis of the method of input-output balance the author proves that the specific system option to maximize wages and the state budget and minimize the profit of intermediate stages meet the requirements and objectives of economy modernization and new industrialization implementation. This requirement is most consistent with a vertically integrated form of national economy organization. In practice all currently known advanced achievements and effects of high-tech progress are realizable only in single vertically integrated chains of value added within the economy of diversified national and multinational corporations on the basis of a mixed, planning-integrated economic system that uses both indirect and direct methods to regulate key reproductive proportions, starting with capital accumulation and its efficiency

Keywords

economic growth, vertical integration, neo-industrialization, economic growth factors, systemic crisis, managed economic growth, inter-industry balance