VolRC RAS scientific journal (online edition)

Journal section "Territorial economy"

Areas of Using Input-Output Balances in Analyzing and Simulating the Development of Socio-Economic Systems

Lukin E.V.

1 (36), 2017

Lukin E.V. Areas of Using Input-Output Balances in Analyzing and Simulating the Development of Socio-Economic Systems. Territorial development issues, 2017, no. 1 (36). URL: http://vtr.isert-ran.ru/article/2125?_lang=en

Abstract   |   Authors   |   References
The paper presents possible areas of using input-output balances in the regulation of the economy. It is proved that balance models reflect all the main macroeconomic indicators of a country (region) in branch-wise and economic aspects. It is shown that the input-output balance is the basis for state regulation of economy of the world’s leading countries. The author proves that the sphere of social reproduction in Russia is regulated poorly, and he proposes methodological approaches to analyzing key parameters of technological development of the economy. The paper assesses and compares technological development parameters of the Russian and U.S. economies. It discloses the current economic conditions of Russian enterprises, characterized by significant dependence on the external environment. The author calculates the multiplier of value added in the Russian economy, which reflects the low level of processing of commodities in Russian industry and the presence of a many-fold gap on this indicator as compared to that in industrialized countries. The paper shows its dynamics in Russia in 2007–2015, proving the increasing backward trends in the Russian industry and disintegration of its technological chains. Having analyzed the structure of GDP use, the author points out the substantial underutilization of available investment potential and the inefficient allocation of investment when the rate of accumulation of industrial capital is equal to only 2.1% of GDP. The paper substantiates the necessity of new high-tech industrialization for the country’s economy and the increasing integration of mining and manufacturing sectors. The key controllable factors and parameters of neo-industrial development are defined. On the basis of mathematical calculations, the author proves that such a development requires stability of the ruble in the long-term period (the entire period of industrialization), high efficiency of investment and planning and the plan-based regulation of the share of savings. The paper provides the values of these parameters for the Russian economy for the period from 1996 to 2014. According to the author’s calculations, in order to solve the problem of doubling the country’s GDP by 2025 (i.e. for 10 years, with an average annual growth rate of the economy at 7.5%), it is necessary to ensure that the purchasing power of the ruble is preserved and investment effectiveness remains at the level of not less than 25%, and the share of savings – not lower than 30% of GDP. An interindustry model of economy was developed and tested on the data from the U.S.; the model makes it possible to carry out variant calculations of changes of the main macroeconomic indicators with the reduction or increase in final demand for the products of industries. The author makes a conclusion about the importance of using the methodology of input-output balances in the regulation of the economy


analysis, development, modeling, input-output balance