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Journal section "Social problems of the development of territories"

Comparative Analysis of Approaches to Migration Simulation

Doroshenko T.A.

1 (36), 2017

Doroshenko T.A. Comparative Analysis of Approaches to Migration Simulation. Territorial development issues, 2017, no. 1 (36). URL: http://vtr.isert-ran.ru/article/2132?_lang=en

Abstract   |   Authors   |   References
The article is devoted to comparative analysis of approaches to migration simulation. It reviews the evolution of different techniques, their advantages and disadvantages. In connection with the intensification of population movements within and between countries in the early 1900s necessitated the emergence of migration simulation processes. Simulation models corresponding to this period took into account only the main factors (e.g., population in centers and the distance between these centers) which influence migration processes. The first migration simulation models are described in the works of both foreign and domestic scientists. Their building is based on the principles of the universal law of gravitation; that is why they are called gravitation models. The article shows that this technique has helped describe the process of population movements and forecast migration processes. It is noted that the forecast quality can be affected by the factors which are not taken into account in simulation. The method of constructing gravitation models is currently in the basis of simulation. Modern migration process simulation practice uses statistical, mathematical and econometric methods. They are used to conduct analysis of migration processes balance. The agent-based approach is an innovative method in migration simulation. It helps build a model as close as possible to reality. The implementation of this approach requires software, as well as significant time expenditure for its study and specifically for simulation. At the same time, comparative analysis of approaches to migration simulation has shown the superiority of agent-based simulation over other techniques. The advantage is that the result is a model close to reality, which can be used to carry out qualitative forecasting. According to the results of simulation it is possible to give recommendations for the development of the effective state migration policy, which is relevant at the present time. The originality of the research consists in generalization, systematization and comparative analysis of the main approaches to migration simulation


simulation, migration factors, agent-based model, migration process, simulation methods

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